The Daily Kos International Elections Digest is compiled by Stephen Wolf and David Beard, with additional contributions from James Lambert and Daniel Donner, and is edited by David Nir.
Note: This is the final edition of the Daily Kos International Elections Digest. We will continue to cover major overseas elections in our flagship newsletter, the Morning Digest, which you can sign up for here. We thank you for reading us the past three years!
Leading Off
● United Kingdom – parliament (Dec. 12)
After nearly a year of uncertainty over the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union and months of a minority government following the exodus of 21 Conservative MPs from the party in September, the U.K. has finally agreed to hold new elections. This will be the first December election since 1923 for the country, which this time of year experiences very little daylight in its northernmost areas.
Campaign Action
Hardline Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson had been pressing for an election since September, but he'd been thwarted by the opposition parties and rebel Tory MPs. They feared that he would use the election to force a "no-deal" Brexit, an economically catastrophic move that would reset tariffs between the U.K. and the EU to standard World Trade Organization rates from their current, far more favorable rates. However, once an extension to negotiate a new deal with the EU until Jan. 31 was enacted, the other parties agreed to an election.
Johnson's Conservatives have been consistently ahead in the polls, with leads ranging from high single digits to low double digits depending on the pollster. However, the volatility of voter support in recent years in the U.K. has kept uncertainty high, and it's still quite possible for the Conservatives to fall short of a majority even if they place a comfortable first.
There are really three main types of elections going on at once within the United Kingdom. The most important are likely Labour-Tory battles across northern Wales and the north and midlands of England. These are historically working-class Labour seats that strongly support Brexit and have been targeted by the Tories. Labour largely held on to these seats two years ago, but they're currently polling much lower than their 2017 results. The Tories are looking to pick up as many as 50 seats across this large swath of the country.
Conservatives will need those seats, though, as the party is looking at losses in southern England to the resurgent centrist Liberal Democrats in seats that voted to remain in the European Union. These seats have little Labour support, so in 2017, when most voters nationwide sided with one of the two major parties, Conservatives were able to hold on to these seats. But with the Liberal Democrats polling in the mid-teens nationally, they are likely to retake some of their friendliest constituencies. They are looking to pick up 10-20 seats, largely from the Conservatives.
Lastly, both Labour and the Conservatives face losses to the center-left Scottish National Party (SNP) in Scotland. The SNP won 56 out of 59 Scottish seats in 2015, only to lose 21 seats in 2017 to all three of the larger U.K.-wide parties. They have since rebounded and look set to regain many of those seats lost two years ago.
All together, under current polling, it's likely that the Tories will both win and lose a significant number of seats but come out on the positive side of the ledger in the end to form a majority government. But the past two U.K. general elections both yielded unexpected results, so we could definitely be in for yet another surprise.
Notable Developments
● Argentina – president and legislature (Oct. 27)
Peronism once again returned to power in Argentina as center-left challenger Alberto Fernandez defeated center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri 48% to 40% as Argentine voters fed up with a struggling economy rejected the incumbent. Peronism, a nationalist populism that draws from both the left and right based on the philosophy of former President Juan Peron, has overshadowed more traditional political divides in Argentina for more than half a century.
In modern Argentine politics, today's Peronist movement sits largely on the center-left while the anti-Peronist factions are generally on the center-right, moving the country toward more traditional political divides. Nestor Kirchner and his wife, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, governed Argentina from 2003 through 2015 and evolved Peronism into its current center-left form (sometimes called Kirchnerism).
Fernandez served under both Kirchners, and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will be his vice president, which likely indicates a return to many of the policies implemented during the Kirchner era. Macri had been the first anti-Peronist to win the presidency since 1999, and his defeat this year continues the generally poor electoral track record of the anti-Personist side.
● Bolivia – constitutional crisis and annulled elections (Oct. 20)
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales, who had governed Bolivia since 2005, resigned on Nov. 10 under pressure from the military and fled his country for political asylum in Mexico after he narrowly won a tainted election last month.
It's been difficult to interpret the events in Bolivia since the election as there have been few if any unquestionably good actors as events have unfolded. Morales' government had largely been a left-wing success story, leading him to easy re-election victories in 2009 and 2014.
However, his eligibility to run for a third term in 2014 was questioned at the time, and his attempt to amend the constitution to allow for him to run a fourth time in 2019 failed in a popular referendum in 2016.
The following year, however, Bolivia's highest court ruled that presidential term limits were unenforceable, even though they're enumerated in the country's constitution, saying they contravened the American Convention on Human Rights. The decision was highly controversial, and even the body that administers the treaty, the Organization of American States, opposed the ruling.
Morales nevertheless proceeded in his attempt to extend his tenure another five years—an effort that ultimately led to his ouster. On election night, updates were cut off after initial vote counts showed that Morales was headed to a runoff against former President Carlos Mesa. Morales then unilaterally declared himself the winner without any further tallies. A new count only came out the next day that had Morales just avoiding a run-off.
An audit by the OAS) found "clear manipulation" of the election and called for the results to be annulled, which then led to interventions by the military and the police. Many on the left, however, including Morales himself, see the events as a military coup against Morales based on trumped up charges by a U.S.-backed organization.
The new interim president, Jeanine Anez, is a conservative politician with no real legitimacy who has taken advantage of the mass resignations of the Morales government to assume the presidency. Her initial days have been polarizing and widely perceived as anti-indigenous in a country where close to half the population belongs to an indigenous group. Many influential right-wing governments in the hemisphere, including the U.S. and Brazil, will be happy to see the end of Morales. But had the same situation occurred with a right-wing president, Morales supporters can only ask, would the military and outside actors have moved so quickly and aggressively?
The next steps will play a key role in Bolivia's future. Anez has said she'll call new elections, which is required within ninety days of a president's resignation. Will those elections be free and fair? And will a candidate from Morales' Movement for Socialism be allowed to run? These questions will determine the fate of Bolivia's democracy.
● Botswana – parliament (Oct. 24)
The right-leaning Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) won 53% of the vote last month and retained its outright majority to win its 12th straight victory since Botswana held its first democratic election in 1965. Although the BDP has won every contest, Botswana has Africa's longest record of continuously holding relatively free and fair elections.
The center-left Umbrella for Democratic Change opposition hoped to win power for the first time, but it won just 36% of the vote and 15 of the 63 seats in parliament, which are almost all elected by plurality winner in single-member districts. Former President Ian Khama had split from the BDP to form his own party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), after falling out with BDP-affiliated President Mokgweetsi Masisi. UDC supporters hoped the BPF would split the vote and cost the BDP its majority, but that didn't happen as the BPF won just 4% of the vote and three seats.
Analysts suggested that, despite his connection to the BDP, voters actually associated the unpopular Khama with the opposition and punished the UDC accordingly. By contrast, Masisi was viewed as a reformist departure from Khama's authoritarianism and corruption and a more stable option compared to populist UDC leader Duma Boko.
● Canada – parliament (Oct. 21)
Despite winning fewer votes than Andrew Scheer's Conservatives and losing their majority in last month's federal elections, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's centrist to center-left Liberals managed to win enough seats to form a minority government in Canada's parliament.
Trudeau's party, damaged by months of scandals, captured 33% of the vote and 157 seats, just 13 short of the majority threshold. Scheer and the Tories, by contrast, won 34% of the vote but only 121 seats, in part because their strongest support was heavily concentrated in just two Western provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan. While Scheer led his party to gains in both votes and seats, his future as the leader of Canada's right-wing is now very much in doubt thanks to Trudeau's survival and will be subject to a leadership review vote next spring.
Trudeau, though, faces new obstacles of his own, as he'll likely be forced to pivot to the left in order to maintain support for his minority government from the left-leaning New Democratic Party. The NDP, under the leadership of rookie MP Jagmeet Singh experienced its worst performance in 15 years, winning just 16% of the vote and 24 of parliament's 338 seats. However, Singh nevertheless holds the balance of power, putting his party in a strong position to push the Liberals leftward on issues such as universal prescription drug coverage.
Meanwhile, the Franco-nationalist Bloc Quebecois also saw a resurgence, winning 8% of the vote and 32 seats (all in the province of Quebec, with much of those gains at the expense of the NDP), while the Greens won 6% (doubling their 2015 performance), but only three seats.
Thanks to Canada's electoral system, which like almost the entire U.S. House elects one member per district by simple plurality, the Liberals won 46% of the seats with just a third of the vote. However, that disproportionately came at the expense of the left-leaning NDP and the centrist Greens, not the Conservatives, who won a more proportional 36% of seats. Both the NDP and Greens have called for adopting proportional representation, but after their relatively disappointing showing, they may not have the political capital to demand electoral reform in exchange for supporting Trudeau's government.
● Germany: Thuringia – state parliament (Oct. 27)
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) continued its string of strong showings in former East German states, placing second in state elections in Thuringia, which is home to 2 million people. AfD's success also complicates the formation of a new government coalition.
Before the election, Thuringia had been governed by a three-party coalition led by the left-wing to far-left Die Linke ("The Left") and including the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the center-left Greens. Die Linke retained its first-place position, but a poor showing by the SPD left the coalition four seats short of a majority.
In theory that would mean AfD, the third place center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and the classically liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) could form a right-wing coalition, but neither of the center-right parties will partner with AfD (and they also won't work with Die Linke). In fact, this is the first-ever German election where AfD and Die Linke have combined for a majority of seats, meaning that a governing coalition of parties in the center simply isn't possible.
No government has yet been formed, and it's unclear if one can unless CDU agrees to cooperate on some level with either Die Linke or AfD. While Thuringia's CDU might be willing to cooperate with AfD, the national CDU (as well as Jewish organizations) have opposed the idea, since such an alliance could hurt the CDU's standing elsewhere, given that AfD is much less popular outside of the former East Germany. It's therefore possible that a stalemate could ensue, in which case new elections would be called.
● Kosovo – government formation
Following October's parliamentary elections, which saw the right-of-center Alliance for the Future of Kosovo and its allies in the outgoing government suffer heavy losses, the leftist Albanian-nationalist Self Determination party has reached a deal with the center-right Democratic League of Kosovo to lead a new governing coalition, which may also include some of the parties representing ethnic minorities. This will mark the first time that Self Determination, a party that supports a stronger welfare state and a referendum on unification with neighboring Albania, will serve in government since it was founded in 2005.
● North Macedonia – parliament (April 12, 2020)
Center-left Social Democratic Prime Minister Zoran Zaev has called an early election for next April after the European Union declined to give North Macedonia a starting date to begin talks on the country's desire to join the EU.
The union's decision was prompted by a veto effort led by French President Emmanuel Macron. No one seems to understand why Macron has been so hostile toward this tiny country, which only became an independent nation in 1991. The decision dealt a major setback to Zoran's government and the reforms it has undertaken since he came to power two years ago. Those included settling the country's long-running name dispute with neighboring Greece, which has paved the way for North Macedonia to soon join NATO.
It's unclear what Zoran's chances of winning the next election are, since his outgoing government relied on support from center-right parties representing the nation's ethnic Albanian minority. However, Social Democrat Stevo Pendarovski won the May presidential runoff over a candidate from the right-wing authoritarian VMRO-DPMNE party by a 54-46 margin. Voters may therefore still prefer a Social Democratic government to its right-wing nationalist predecessor, which strongly opposed the country's name change.
● Poland – parliament (Oct. 13)
Poland's parliamentary elections produced a split verdict on the fate of the country's commitment to liberal democracy: The radical-right Law and Justice Party (PiS) retained its outright majority in the powerful lower house (called the Sejm) but narrowly lost its Senate majority to liberal democratic opposition parties.
PiS won a slim majority of seats in the Sejm with 44% of the vote, followed by the center-right Civic Coalition at 27%, The Left at 13%, the center-right agrarian Polish Coalition at 9%, and the far-right Confederation at 7%. Overall, support for PiS and Confederation totaled 50%, compared to 49% for the three liberal democratic parties, showing just how polarized Poland has become since PiS took power in 2015.
However, because the opposition agreed not to run against one another in the Senate, where members are elected by plurality in single-member districts instead of a more proportional system, they won 51 of 100 seats to break PiS' majority. Although the Senate is less powerful than the Sejm, it can delay legislation and has other administrative powers that could impose some checks on PiS. PiS nevertheless remains intent on ending judicial independence and undermining liberal democratic institutions.
● Romania – president and government formation (Nov. 10 & 24)
Romania's center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD) government has collapsed amid widespread corruption scandals and efforts to undermine judicial independence that sparked major protests. That's given way to the center-right National Liberal Party under new Prime Minister Ludovic Orban forming a new government with the support of the anti-corruption Save Romania Union party (USR), ethnic minority parties, and a handful of PSD defectors.
The next parliamentary election isn't scheduled until 2021, but recent polls have shown the PSD plummeting from the 45.5% it won in 2016 to just a quarter of the vote now. Both PNL and USR could make significant gains if early elections are held, especially since PSD still holds its Senate majority. Meanwhile, Romania is electing its presidency in November, and PNL President Klaus Iohannis led 36-24 in the first round to advance to a runoff against former Prime Minister Viorica Dăncilă, the recently ousted PSD leader. Iohannis is likely to win a second term after providing a check against PSD's attempts to undermine the rule of law.
● Spain – parliament (Nov. 10)
After the center-left Socialists and left-wing Unidas Podemos party failed to reach a coalition agreement following April's election, Spain held early elections that still resulted in a fragmented parliament and big gains for the far-right Vox. But in contrast to the disunity that followed April's election, the Socialists and Podemos quickly reached an agreement to form a coalition government after the results came in. However, because the Socialists failed to make gains (taking 28% of the vote) while Podemos lost some seats to win just 13% and a Podemos splinter faction won just 2%, these parties only hold 45% of seats combined.
One key difference in November's results is the surge in support for Vox, which doubled its seats and grew to 15% of the vote amid a backlash to Catalonia's push for independence, an effort that's unpopular with voters in the rest of Spain. Much of Vox's gains came at the expense of the center-right Citizens party, which was once dominant among voters opposed to Catalan nationalism but tumbled from 16% to 7% and lost the vast majority of its seats. Fortunately for the left, the right-wing People's Party won only 21% of the vote, putting the three parties on the right at only 43% of seats.
However, for the left and Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, their path to attaining a majority isn't easy. The Socialist-Podemos coalition would need either the pro-business Citizens to break with the right and enable a government that includes the radical left, or they would need the assent of various Basque and Catalan separatist parties that otherwise are much more amenable to a left-wing economic agenda. Consequently, the issue of Catalan independence is likely to remain at the forefront of Spanish politics for the foreseeable future.
● Sri Lanka – president (Nov. 16)
Sri Lanka voters will elect their next president this month in an election taking place in the wake of Islamist terrorist bombings of hotels and Christian churches on Easter Sunday earlier this year.
The center-right United National Party (UNP) is backing Sajith Premadasa, who is the son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa. Premadasa's main rival is Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, who is the brother of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and is supported by the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), a Sinhalese nationalist party that's socially conservative but leans left on economic issues.
The Rajapaksa brothers led the government when it won a 25-year civil war over militants fighting for an independent state for Sri Lanka's ethnic Tamil Muslim minority in a country that is roughly three-fourths ethnically Sinhalese and Buddhist. During that war, Gotabaya Rajapaksa was defense minister when the government was accused of corruption and committing war crimes. Following the recent terrorist attacks, Rajapaksa has campaigned as a law-and-order strongman and has sparked fears, particularly among ethnic minorities, that he will usher in a more authoritarian government.
● Switzerland – parliament (Oct. 20)
Switzerland's two Green parties (the left-wing Green Party and centrist Green Liberal Party) made significant gains in the country's federal elections last month, surging from a combined 12% in 2015 to 21% in 2019, which could result in the first Green Party representative joining the seven-member Swiss Federal Council that governs the country. The two parties collectively gained 26 seats, giving them a combined total of 44 in the 200 member National Council, with the Green Party, at 28 seats, overtaking the Christian Democrats to become the fourth-largest individual party in the chamber.
That's a crucial threshold because Switzerland's unusual Federal Council, which acts in place of a traditional head of state, usually grants at least one seat to each of the four biggest parties. The Green Party's success will therefore likely come at the expense of the Christian Democrats, who have held at least one seat on the council since 1919, when elections for the Federal Council are held in December.
The right-wing populist Swiss People's Party again took first place with 26%, but under Switzerland's cooperative governance model that means little. The center-left Social Democrats and the center-right Liberals took second and third place with 17% and 15%, respectively, and all are expected to retain their positions on the Federal Council.
● Tunisia – president and government formation (Oct. 13)
Conservative academic Kais Saied won last month's runoff by a 73-27 landslide over populist media magnate Nabil Karoui of the Heart of Tunisia party. The independent Saied was backed by the main center-right Islamist part, Ennahdha, and the far-right Islamist Dignity Coalition after Ennahdha's candidate was eliminated in the first round. However, the parties supporting Saied had far less success in recent parliamentary elections that resulted in a fractured political landscape, and several of the major parties have refused to accept an Ennahda-led government after it won a plurality of just 24% of all seats.
● Uruguay – president and legislature (Oct. 27 and Nov. 30)
The center-left to left-wing Broad Front coalition, which has governed Uruguay for the past 15 years, lost its slim majorities in the General Assembly in elections last month but remained the largest party in both houses. The coalition's presidential candidate, Daniel Martinez, placed first with 41% of the vote and will advance to a runoff with center-right National Party candidate Luis Lacalle Pou, who received 30%.
Five years ago, the Broad Front's nominee won 49% in the first round and 57% in the second, which could suggest a very close vote in this month's runoff. The new right-wing, socially conservative Open Cabildo party won 11% of the vote and its voters should largely migrate to Lacalle Pou. The voters who will decide the election will likely be from the centrist Colorado Party which came in third place with 13% of the vote. Meanwhile, PERI, a new green party, won its first seat in the Chamber of Deputies with 1.5% of the national vote.